Thumping Voting In Elections: Regime Return or Change?

The inordinate 10% increase in vote percentage in Asaam, Kerala and Puducherry in elections held on 10th April has surprised many.  The election after SIR has seen an increase in all states where elections have been conducted, the source says.  In Bihar, the 10% increase in voting has benefited the ruling coalition. In Kerala, the voting percentage increased from 75% to 78%; in Assam, from 82% to 85%; and in Puducherry, from 85% to 90%, the source says.  In Puducherry, the coalition of Congress, DMK and VCK does not seem to be working properly, and tensions between them are likely to affect the results, sources say. This time, Congress contested 16 seats and left only one for VCK, its alliance partner, whereas in the last elections, Congress contested 14 seats and VCK, its alliance partner, 2, the source says. In Kerala, the LDF coalition has been in power for the last 10 years and in the last state elections, all Muslims voted for the LDF alliance, but after the steps taken by the present CM, Pinarayi Vijayan to woo the Hindu voters, the Muslim voters have distanced themselves from the present government, a source says. The Muslims are likely to shift towards the Congress party. 

In Assam, the Congress party has worked hard in Upper Assam under the leadership of Gogoi and the Congress party is sure that 10% votes of the Ahom definitely went their way, a source says. On the other side, the BJP is very happy that last time there were 39 seats where Muslims were in the domination but after SIR the number declined and now only 22 seats remain, the source says. In Bodo land, on 12 seats the BPF and UPPL are engaged in a straight fight, a source says. BPF is in coalition with the BJP, whereas Pramod Bora’s United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL)is in direct contact with Himanta Biswa Sarma and it's presumed that if needed, the UPPL will extend support to the BJP in the formation of the government, a source says. In upper Assam also tea garden workers are more than Ahom and these tea garden workers are considered traditional supporters of the BJP and the budget of Congress is just 5% of the BJP budget and it's a common feeling amongst the voters that Congress is contesting with minimal budget source says. Apart from these the political parties have already understood the importance of women voters, for example is Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and recently Bihar. 

Overall the political scenario indicative of impactful impression by BJP In Assam and West Bengal which most likely be reflecting in results as well. At down South weakening or most likely a regime change is quite possible in Kerala as per sources.